Flight to normalcy? Navigating the road to recovery for the aviation industry
Global airline traffic is still at lower levels than pre-Covid, but it’s pretty close to a full recovery. So when will that happen—and should it? Let’s take a Deep Dive.
✈️ Leisure air travel is expected to recover to pre-Covid levels by 2024, but won’t rise by as much as it was expected to before the pandemic hit. Business travel is likely never to return to pre-pandemic levels.
🌏 Of all the world’s regions, Asia’s aviation industry was the hardest hit by the pandemic.
🌱 The big question, though, is whether a bounceback in air travel is even desirable in the first place, given the industry’s profound impact on the environment.
QUOTABLE
“People will not stop flying. They have to fly for work, to see family, and lots have been locked up for two years. People are on the move again.”
Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair
BY THE NUMBERS
72% Global air passenger numbers stood at 72 percent of 2019 levels by the end of 2022—but at just 52 percent in the Asia-Pacific region.
4.35 billion Airlines expect to carry 4.35 billion passengers in 2023; the record, in 2019, was 4.54 billion.
48% China’s international passenger flight capacity is still 48 percent lower than in 2019.
QUIZ
How much did global passenger air travel fall by in 2020?
A. 40.2%
B. 60.2%
C. 80.2%
Scroll to the bottom of the email for the answer.
Did you know?
It’s not just the pandemic: there are also plenty of other long-standing challenges facing the aviation industry.
THE EDIT
📈 We will recover. The aviation industry may well return to its former size post-pandemic, but not to its former shape.
👩💼 We won’t recover. Business travel might have been permanently damaged by Covid.
🇨🇳 Still trying to recover. After its tough lockdowns, China is finding it harder than most places to return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly where international flights are concerned.
♻️ Maybe don’t recover? While air travel is gradually working on sustainability, it’s nowhere near there yet.
🧫 Here comes the science. Here’s what aviation’s post-Covid recovery looks like in extreme statistical detail.
WATCH
The airline industry’s recovery and its growth generally are hampered by some startlingly old IT systems.
THE FULL PICTURE
The pandemic had a major negative impact on employment in the aviation industry, especially in Asia.
KEY PLAYER
Willie Walsh
As director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Willie Walsh is in charge of leading the industry’s post-Covid fightback. The former CEO of Aer Lingus and British Airways has said that while recovery is going well, challenges ranging from supply chain problems to the lack of available capacity are preventing it from going as well as it could.
HONOUREE TO KNOW
Ye Jialin
The tourism board of China’s popular tropical destination Sanya is actively appealing to millennial and Gen Z travellers globally—and its director Ye Jialin is at the forefront of this push. Some of the initiatives rolled out include the Hainan Free Trade Port Internet Celebrity Creation Competition and Sanya x Game for Peace. Before taking on this role, Jialin founded aviation services company Aero Link.
ONE FINAL THING
Air cargo was never as badly affected by the pandemic as passenger traffic, so when it hit, some airlines started converting passenger planes into cargo carriers. This is what that looked like.
