How does one choose between healthcare or economics? Tatler takes a look at what it means to decide between two of the most important aspects of society today.
There is much to be said about the current situation in the Philippines. Despite undergoing the world's longest lockdown — spanning five months and counting — the country has yet to flatten the curve or even ride out its first wave. Healthcare workers argue that as the count of positive cases continues to increase, so does the need to enforce a stricter community quarantine. Earlier in the month, after much speculation, the government acquiesced to reimpose stricter lockdown measures in Metro Manila. Needless to say, this has sparked an even more impassioned debate between healthcare and economics.
Both sides have very valid arguments as to why we should or should not revert to stricter lockdown measures. Speaking in an economic context, a stricter community quarantine will do no favours for businesses and their workers. Due to the prolonged stagnancy of our initial three-month lockdown, the Philippines has already hit a recession as of 06 August 2020. Those fortunate enough not to feel its effects (yet) may wonder: what is a recession?
What is a recession?
According to Forbes, a recession is "a significant decline in economic activity that lasts for months or even years". This can happen for a number of reasons and is unavoidable in the business cycle. A recession usually manifests itself as a negative gross domestic product (GDP), rising levels of unemployment, and declining retail sales. What's significant about the current recession is how dramatic the economic contraction was. Economic growth shrank by 16.5 per cent last quarter, which is the lowest since 1981. While there had been episodes of negative growth in quarters throughout 1991 and 1998, this is the most significant contraction we've seen in nearly three decades.
Outlook From Experts
For now, economists hope that the recovery will be quick and steady. Of course, that could very well not be the case. The most optimistic outlook would be the V-shaped recovery where a very sharp downturn will come with a very sharp upturn too. There's also the W-shaped recovery, which comes in a zigzag motion of ups and downs. A U-shaped recovery will be slow but steady growth over time. However, an economist at ING Philippines, Nicholas Mapa, recently predicted that our local outlook could very well come at an L-shape. This is the most pessimistic outlook, which is characterised by "persistent unemployment and stagnant economic growth". This news comes at a time when unemployment is at a record high at 45.5 per cent — meaning around 27.3 million are out of work.
Considering that before the pandemic, the Philippine economy was on a streak at 84 quarters of continuous growth, this downturn comes as a bit of a disappointment. On a global scale, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees the global economy to shrink by 4.9 per cent this year.
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